Analysis of First PA Counties to Reopen

Today, Governor Wolf announced the first 24 counties to partially reopen. The decision was informed by the results of a Carnegie Mellon Risk Based Decision Tool. A map of the reopening counties is provided in this Pennlive article.

The 24 counties are listed below, along with their population, total cases over the 14 days of April 13 and April 27, and the total cases per 100k over this time.

County	Population	Cases	Cases per 100k
Bradford	60,323	12	19.9
Cameron	4,447	0	0
Centre	162,385	23	14.2
Clarion	38,438	6	15.6
Clearfield	79,255	7	8.8
Clinton	38,632	23	59.5
Crawford	84,629	3	3.5
Elk	29,910	1	3.3
Erie	269,728	41	15.2
Forest	7,247	0	0
Jefferson	43,425	2	4.6
Lawrence	85,512	10	11.7
Lycoming	113,299	38	33.5
McKean	40,625	2	4.9
Mercer	109,424	15	13.7
Montour	18,230	0	0
Northumberland	90,843	33	36.3
Potter	16,526	0	0
Snyder	40,372	9	22.3
Sullivan	6,066	0	0
Tioga	40,591	3	7.4
Union	44,923	11	24.5
Venango	50,668	1	2
Warren	39,191	0	0
	Total Population	Total Cases	Overall Cases per 100k
	1,514,689	240	15.8

The counties in Southwestern PA were not on this list. In his public statement at 2pm on May 1, Governor Wolf said, “We are already looking at other counties to move from red to yellow categories. In particular, we have our eyes on counties in the southwest.”

The new cases over 14 days for southwestern PA counties is provided in the following table.

County	Population	Cases	Cases per 100k
Allegheny	1,216,045	364	29.9
Armstrong	64,735	19	29.4
Beaver	163,929	237	144.6
Butler	187,853	24	12.8
Cambria	130,192	14	10.8
Fayette	129,274	20	15.5
Greene	36,233	2	5.5
Indiana	84,073	19	22.6
Somerset	73,447	12	16.3
Washington	206,865	42	20.3
Westmoreland	348,899	151	43.3
	Total Population	Total Cases	Overall Cases per 100k
	2,641,545	904	34.2

Allegheny county has had fewer new cases per capita over the 14 day period than three of the counties that are partially reopening, and fewer than southwestern PA overall. Allegheny county and southwest PA have approximately twice as many new cases as the counties permitted to partially reopen, although fewer than the 50 per 100k criteria that the governor previously provided as case criteria.

Other factors were considered beyond new case counties, including population density, ICU bed capacity, population age demographics, and the percent of the population employed in jobs that have been closed by the shutdown. I have previously written that assuming density increases COVID-19 risk is questionable.

I have been plotting the new case counts for Southwestern PA counties, and there has been a general downward trend in new cases. Hopefully this continues and and southwestern PA is able to move to Yellow soon.