Today, Governor Wolf announced the first 24 counties to partially reopen. The decision was informed by the results of a Carnegie Mellon Risk Based Decision Tool. A map of the reopening counties is provided in this Pennlive article.
The 24 counties are listed below, along with their population, total cases over the 14 days of April 13 and April 27, and the total cases per 100k over this time.
| County | Population | Cases | Cases per 100k |
| Bradford | 60,323 | 12 | 19.9 |
| Cameron | 4,447 | 0 | 0 |
| Centre | 162,385 | 23 | 14.2 |
| Clarion | 38,438 | 6 | 15.6 |
| Clearfield | 79,255 | 7 | 8.8 |
| Clinton | 38,632 | 23 | 59.5 |
| Crawford | 84,629 | 3 | 3.5 |
| Elk | 29,910 | 1 | 3.3 |
| Erie | 269,728 | 41 | 15.2 |
| Forest | 7,247 | 0 | 0 |
| Jefferson | 43,425 | 2 | 4.6 |
| Lawrence | 85,512 | 10 | 11.7 |
| Lycoming | 113,299 | 38 | 33.5 |
| McKean | 40,625 | 2 | 4.9 |
| Mercer | 109,424 | 15 | 13.7 |
| Montour | 18,230 | 0 | 0 |
| Northumberland | 90,843 | 33 | 36.3 |
| Potter | 16,526 | 0 | 0 |
| Snyder | 40,372 | 9 | 22.3 |
| Sullivan | 6,066 | 0 | 0 |
| Tioga | 40,591 | 3 | 7.4 |
| Union | 44,923 | 11 | 24.5 |
| Venango | 50,668 | 1 | 2 |
| Warren | 39,191 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Population | Total Cases | Overall Cases per 100k | |
| 1,514,689 | 240 | 15.8 |
The counties in Southwestern PA were not on this list. In his public statement at 2pm on May 1, Governor Wolf said, “We are already looking at other counties to move from red to yellow categories. In particular, we have our eyes on counties in the southwest.”
The new cases over 14 days for southwestern PA counties is provided in the following table.
| County | Population | Cases | Cases per 100k |
| Allegheny | 1,216,045 | 364 | 29.9 |
| Armstrong | 64,735 | 19 | 29.4 |
| Beaver | 163,929 | 237 | 144.6 |
| Butler | 187,853 | 24 | 12.8 |
| Cambria | 130,192 | 14 | 10.8 |
| Fayette | 129,274 | 20 | 15.5 |
| Greene | 36,233 | 2 | 5.5 |
| Indiana | 84,073 | 19 | 22.6 |
| Somerset | 73,447 | 12 | 16.3 |
| Washington | 206,865 | 42 | 20.3 |
| Westmoreland | 348,899 | 151 | 43.3 |
| Total Population | Total Cases | Overall Cases per 100k | |
| 2,641,545 | 904 | 34.2 |
Allegheny county has had fewer new cases per capita over the 14 day period than three of the counties that are partially reopening, and fewer than southwestern PA overall. Allegheny county and southwest PA have approximately twice as many new cases as the counties permitted to partially reopen, although fewer than the 50 per 100k criteria that the governor previously provided as case criteria.
Other factors were considered beyond new case counties, including population density, ICU bed capacity, population age demographics, and the percent of the population employed in jobs that have been closed by the shutdown. I have previously written that assuming density increases COVID-19 risk is questionable.
I have been plotting the new case counts for Southwestern PA counties, and there has been a general downward trend in new cases. Hopefully this continues and and southwestern PA is able to move to Yellow soon.
